On 24 February, 2022, Vladimir Putin’s Russia did the unthinkable and invaded Ukraine—thereby starting a war in Europe. Two months have gone by since the start of the conflict, and many people are still left wondering what caused it. According to Putin, the root of the problem is “the expansion of NATO to the east, moving its military infrastructure closer to Russian borders.” However, Russia’s unprovoked invasion seems to paint a very different picture—one in which Russia is an aggressive country trying to rebuild an empire of the past.
Understanding why Russia has now shifted the focus of its invasion to eastern Ukraine, seemingly abandoning all plans of conquering its capital city of Kyiv, has to do with an even earlier invasion. In 2014, Russia invaded and annexed Crimea, as well as numerous towns and villages in the eastern region of Ukraine known as Donbas. Now, more than eight years later, Russia is yet again attacking the eastern part of the country—a region that has endured the ongoing conflict ever since. While those living in the US and other Western countries may have a hard time understanding why Crimea and Donbas are so important, Russian military convoys continue to spread over the region.
Russia’s new offensive
Although Vladimir Putin has recently stated that the economic sanctions imposed against Russia over the invasion have failed, more and more analysts now see the invasion itself as a loss for the Russian President. After all, Russian forces failed to achieve what seemed to be the main goal of the operation, which was to crush Ukraine’s outnumbered army and occupy its capital. Moreover, Russian troops seemed overall ill-prepared to face the Ukrainian resistance, incapable of adapting to the harsh realities on the ground, and unable to plan, maintain and supply their own forces. These facts might make the invasion even more dangerous.
Faced with unprecedented economic sanctions imposed by Western countries, and alienated from most partners and allies, Russia is now more alone than ever before. President Putin is not only confronted with opposition from other world leaders, but he is also facing new worries at home. Russia needs to transform what now seems like a failure into a victory to please its people and maintain order within. The easiest way to do that is by withdrawing troops from other areas of Ukraine and focusing on a clear objective—a victory in the East. But is this a likely scenario, or are Russian troops going to underperform yet again?
Outlining new decisions
As President Joe Biden announced that the US and other Western allies will continue to supply Ukraine with the necessary weapons to continue its fight against Russia, it’s becoming more evident that a Russian victory in the region would not go well for the West. According to the President, help from the West has ensured “that Putin failed in his initial war aims to conquer and control Ukraine”. However, with Russian forces now intensifying attacks in the Donbas region, another aspect also becomes painfully clear: A defeat in Donbas could mean a historic failure for Vladimir Putin.
Like Crimea, Donbas has a long and complicated history of siding with either Ukraine or Russia, and is a country that has often commanded much of the politics in the region. Moreover, since 2014 both Crimea and Donbas have suffered the effects of a long war that continued to plague Ukraine even before the current invasion. More than 13,000 people have lost their lives in the conflict prior to 2022, and even more deaths are to be expected now, as the Russian army heats up its attacks. While the Russian President seems determined to win in the region, his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky, also vows to not give anything that’s Ukrainian.
Ending the conflict
While many people believed that Russia’s withdrawal from the outskirts of major Ukrainian cities like Kyiv may have been the first step towards a long-awaited peace, new attacks in Donbas suggest that Russia has different plans for Ukraine. Like Crimea, Donbas is symbolically important for Russians everywhere, and it might serve as a consolation prize for the Russian President. With US intelligence reports now also saying Vladimir Putin wants a victory by May 9— Russia’s “Victory Day”—all facts seem to point to a new escalation in the conflict, albeit on a different front.
Early May or not, Vladimir Putin needs a victory in Ukraine—and Donbas seems to be a more realistic target for the Russian troops. However, there is no way to know if that will be enough to alleviate Russia’s hunger for blood, or if the invasion will spread yet again. Like the West, Ukraine seems unwilling to pay the price, and its President now vows to fight until the very end.
