Ecuador Faces Elections Amid Rising Crime and Security Challenges

February 4, 2025

As Ecuador approaches critical elections on February 9th, the nation grapples with pervasive criminal violence that profoundly impacts its political, social, and economic stability. Security concerns have overshadowed other significant issues like the energy crisis and unemployment, reflecting an urgent need for comprehensive security reform.

Surge in Criminal Activities

Alarming Increase in Violence

Ecuador, once known as an “island of peace,” has witnessed a dramatic surge in criminal activities over the past five years. Homicides have increased by an alarming 430%, femicides have doubled, youth violence has soared by 640%, and extortion practices have exploded. This escalating violence compounds the daily struggles of Ecuadorians, affecting their quality of life and amplifying their sense of insecurity. The rise in violence is not confined to only major urban centers but is also apparent in small towns and rural areas, making the sense of danger a constant presence in the lives of many Ecuadorians.

The alarming increase in violence disrupts the social fabric, creating an environment rife with fear and mistrust. Ordinary citizens are often caught in the crossfire or coerced into paying “vacunas” to criminal groups to ensure their safety. Business operations and community activities are significantly hindered by the need to navigate this violent landscape. The dramatic rise of youth violence, particularly among gangs, signals a worrying trend that could have long-term implications if not addressed. With young Ecuadorians increasingly drawn into a cycle of violence and crime, the future stability of the country hangs precariously in the balance.

Impact on International Relations

Beyond national borders, Ecuador’s rising crime rate poses significant challenges for the United States by empowering hazardous criminal groups and exacerbating migration issues. During Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s confirmation hearing, he underscored Ecuador as a U.S. priority, particularly concerning security threats and combating Chinese illegal fishing activities. This interconnected web of criminal activity does not confine itself to Ecuador alone but ripples outwards, threatening regional stability and international partnerships.

The impact on international relations is multifaceted as criminal organizations in Ecuador strengthen their connections with foreign drug cartels and other illicit networks. The United States, concerned with these developments, has increased its efforts to assist Ecuador in fighting these threats through funding and tactical support. Additionally, Ecuador’s geopolitical importance, due to its coastal access and strategic location, exacerbates the need for international cooperation to tackle crime effectively. The illicit activities not only challenge Ecuador’s internal security but also strain diplomatic relations and complicate economic ties with its international partners.

Government’s Response to Crime

Declaration of Internal Armed Conflict

In February 2024, brazen criminal attacks in Guayaquil prompted President Daniel Noboa, of the National Democratic Action (AND) party, to declare an “internal armed conflict” and label 22 criminal groups as terrorist organizations. This aggressive stance included issuing a state of emergency, deploying the military to confront these groups, and placing the prison system under military control. President Noboa’s administration believed that mobilizing military resources was necessary to curb the escalating violence and regain control over the most affected regions.

The declaration of an internal armed conflict marked a significant shift in Ecuador’s approach to tackling organized crime. By militarizing the response, the government aimed to not only quell immediate threats but also dismantle the entrenched power structures within these criminal organizations. The state of emergency granted law enforcement agencies and the military broader authority to conduct operations, arrest suspects, and impose curfews. Despite these measures showing some initial success in reducing violent incidents, they also raised concerns about potential human rights abuses and the long-term sustainability of such a hardline approach.

High-Value Targeting Strategy

Noboa aimed to dismantle the leadership of these criminal organizations through high-value targeting (HVT). A referendum in April 2024 solidified these “mano dura” (iron-fist) policies and cemented the military’s role in public security. HVT focuses on capturing or eliminating key leaders of criminal groups, intending to disrupt their command structures and operational capabilities. Although homicides declined by 16.5% over the year, indicating some success, the strategy was incomplete and inadvertently contributed to persistent or increased violence. The capture of high-profile targets often led to power vacuums and intensified internal conflicts among mid-level commanders.

The government’s focus on decapitation strikes left the middle operational structures of these groups intact, creating an environment ripe for further violence. This approach, while reducing the immediate threat posed by top leaders, ignored the more subtle and systemic issues within these criminal organizations. Mid-level commanders, seizing the opportunity, vied for control and influence, leading to splintering and the emergence of more violent factions. The unintended consequence was an even more fragmented and chaotic criminal landscape, complicating efforts to restore stability and peace in affected areas.

Fragmentation and Diversification of Criminal Groups

Splintering of Major Groups

The government’s HVT approach led to the capture of some crime bosses, with others isolated in prison or fleeing abroad. However, similar to Mexico’s experiences, Ecuador faced challenges from mid-level commanders vying for control, resulting in the splintering of significant groups such as Los Lobos, Los Choneros, Los Tiguerones, and the Latin Kings. This fragmentation resulted in more violent actors and internal power struggles, complicating efforts to mount effective responses and spreading violence to new areas. The splintering of these groups also meant that law enforcement faced a more diffuse and harder-to-track array of criminal actors, each with their own agendas and methods.

As these mid-level commanders vied for power, new factions emerged with varying degrees of loyalty and alignment to the original groups. For example, in the town of Durán, turf wars between Los Chone Killers, a splinter faction of Los Choneros, and the Latin Kings led to car bombings targeting public officials. The viciousness of these turf battles illustrated the challenges in containing violence within the original criminal networks, as more groups meant more conflict and more opportunities for collateral damage. The splintering of major criminal organizations thus had the paradoxical effect of both weakening and spreading the threat, making comprehensive security efforts even more complex and demanding.

Diversification of Criminal Activities

The criminal landscape in Ecuador has also diversified, with groups branching out beyond drug trafficking into extortion, kidnapping, illegal mining, human smuggling, fuel trafficking, and wildlife trafficking. Extortion, or “vacunas,” has become a common practice where businesses, government institutions, and ordinary people pay fees to avoid physical harm and property damage. This diversification not only boosted the financial capabilities of criminal enterprises but also intertwined them more deeply with the socio-economic fabric of the country, making eradication efforts more challenging.

Illegal mining, particularly controlled by Los Lobos and Los Choneros, has not only provided lucrative profits but also facilitated money laundering and created networks with transnational crime groups. The environmental degradation and exploitation associated with illegal mining added another layer of complexity to the government’s response requirements. Similarly, human smuggling and fuel trafficking represented new fronts that demanded attention and resources. Ecuadorian criminal groups, by diversifying their activities, showcased a tactical shift towards ensuring their operations’ sustainability and expansion, making the fight against them more multifaceted.

Transnational Crime and Local Politics

Evolving Relationship with Transnational Crime

The fragmentation of local criminal groups has influenced their interactions with powerful international organizations such as the Sinaloa Cartel and Cártel Jalisco Nueva Generación (CJNG). Previously, these international groups relied on specific Ecuadorian counterparts—Los Choneros for Sinaloa and Los Lobos for CJNG. However, the government’s targeting policy and subsequent fragmentation made the transnational groups adapt by engaging with multiple local groups through short-term deals. This shift potentially reduced the power of individual Ecuadorian groups while intensifying violent competition among them to secure contracts with larger Drug Trafficking Organizations (DTOs).

As local criminal groups’ dynamics evolved, transnational crime organizations had to navigate a landscape rife with rapidly shifting alliances and increasing unpredictability. The ambition of local groups to become more than mere vassals, particularly exemplified by Los Lobos, posed an added risk of violence escalation as they sought to control more aspects of the drug trade themselves. This evolving relationship underscored the adaptability and resiliency of both local and international criminal networks, making law enforcement and policy responses even more challenging. Addressing these transformed partnerships required an intricate understanding of the intersecting operations and motivations driving these groups.

Encroachment into Local Politics

An alarming trend discussed is the encroachment of criminal groups into local politics, where they use violence and corruption to assert influence. The surge in political candidate assassinations who oppose these groups and the coercion of officials in Durán to provide protection or facilitate criminal activities showcase the weakening of state authority and legitimacy. Such influence is often achieved through bribery, intimidation, and even outright assassination of those who dare to stand against these criminals’ interests.

Incidents like the Metastasis scandal exposed deep ties between government officials and organized crime. Additionally, the justice system suffers from corruption, inefficiency, and intimidation, evidenced by the murders of 15 judges and prosecutors since 2022. These challenges underscore the severe threats posed to Ecuador’s democratic institutions and the critical need for substantial reforms to restore public trust. The corrosive impact of criminal influence over politics not only erodes governance but also weakens the public’s perception of the state’s ability to enforce law and order impartially.

Election Dynamics and Policy Proposals

February 9 Election and Candidates

The February 9 election is critical, with President Noboa’s “mano dura” policies gaining political traction and bolstering his approval rating to nearly 55%. In a January 24 poll, he led the presidential race against 14 candidates with 36.9%, while his closest competitor, Luisa González of the Citizen Revolution Movement, followed with 32.4%. González, despite her 44% personal approval rating, faces the polarizing legacy of her party leader, Rafael Correa, accused of corruption and living in exile. The election dynamics thus pit a hardline approach to crime against a more rights-based, rehabilitative perspective, highlighting the ongoing debate over the most effective strategies to combat organized crime.

Noboa’s platform is primarily focused on institutionalizing the use of joint police-military forces and employing cyber tools and big data to combat crime. In contrast, González proposes a victim-centered, rights-based approach emphasizing social reintegration for incarcerated individuals and collaborative policing, avoiding the military-centric methods of Noboa. This divergence in strategies reflects broader ideological divides within Ecuadorian society, with significant implications for the country’s future security policies. The election outcome will not only determine the immediate strategies for tackling crime but also set the tone for Ecuador’s long-term approach to security and governance.

Policy Recommendations

The article provides several policy recommendations to further reduce violence and dismantle the power of criminal groups. A comprehensive security strategy that integrates law enforcement with socio-economic measures to build societal resilience against organized crime is essential. Shifting focus from high-value targets to dismantling the operational middle levels of criminal networks can disrupt their capacity and generate valuable evidence against top-tier criminals. Additionally, law enforcement must address crimes beyond cocaine trafficking, such as illegal mining, extortion, and various forms of trafficking, requiring strengthened police and investigative capabilities.

Reforming Ecuador’s justice system by eradicating corruption and ensuring independence is crucial. Restoring the Ministry of Justice to coordinate criminal policy and oversight, and creating special investigative units insulated from political interference can advance the fight against high-level corruption and powerful criminal networks. Enhanced U.S. assistance, including the $7.6 million aid for combating illegal mining and modernizing port security, alongside temporary U.S. military operations in the Galápagos Islands, can significantly support these efforts. These multifaceted reforms aim to bolster Ecuador’s institutions and enhance their capacity to effectively confront the intricate and evolving threats posed by organized crime.

Strengthening Law Enforcement and Judicial Reforms

Enhancing Law Enforcement Capabilities

Law enforcement must address crimes beyond cocaine trafficking, such as illegal mining, extortion, kidnapping, human smuggling, and wildlife trafficking. Addressing these diverse criminal activities necessitates the development of specialized units within the police force equipped with the training and resources to handle the unique challenges posed by each type of crime. The need for advanced technology and intelligence-sharing mechanisms is vital to improving the efficiency and effectiveness of law enforcement operations. The introduction of modern forensic tools and data analytics can significantly enhance the ability to track and dismantle criminal networks.

Investment in advancing scanning and inspection technologies, interagency, and international cooperation at ports and borders is imperative, considering 68% of Ecuador’s exports risk containing contraband. Addressing illegal mining, logging, and poaching requires a blend of law enforcement and socio-economic community support. Strengthening collaborations with the U.S. Coast Guard and comprehensively dismantling wildlife trafficking, especially operations with connections to China, should be prioritized. Replacing the existing ECU-911 digital security system with a secure, internationally compliant surveillance system could enhance monitoring and prevent criminal activities while ensuring data privacy.

Judiciary Reform and Anti-Corruption Efforts

As Ecuador gears up for crucial elections on February 9th, the nation is struggling with rampant criminal violence that deeply affects its political, social, and economic stability. The security threats have become so severe that they overshadow other pressing issues such as the energy crisis and high unemployment rates. This highlights the urgent necessity for a comprehensive overhaul of the country’s security policies.

The pervasive criminal violence has penetrated all aspects of life in Ecuador, creating an atmosphere of fear and uncertainty that hampers daily activities and disrupts the economy. Businesses are hesitant to operate, investments are dwindling, and tourism has taken a significant hit, further exacerbating the financial woes of the country.

In addition to economic challenges, the social fabric of Ecuador is under strain. Families live in constant fear for their safety, communities are eroded by crime, and trust in public institutions is waning. This general environment of insecurity has turned security reform into a priority that surpasses other government agendas, including employment and energy management.

Ecuador’s upcoming elections are crucial as they represent a potential turning point for addressing these critical issues. Voters are increasingly concerned about their safety and are likely to support candidates who propose viable solutions for combating crime. Comprehensive security reform is not just a political promise; it is an essential step toward restoring stability and confidence in Ecuador’s future.

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