The incoming Trump administration plans to implement significant changes to the Defense Department’s strategy, focusing on a shift from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region to address the growing threat posed by China. This new defense strategy is heavily influenced by key figures such as Austin Dahmer, appointed deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy, and Alexander Velez-Green, senior advisor to the under secretary of defense for policy. Both are closely affiliated with Elbridge Colby, whose confirmation as head of the Pentagon’s policy shop is pending.
Strategic Shift Towards the Indo-Pacific
Dahmer and Velez-Green have consistently advocated for a reduced U.S. presence in Europe, suggesting that resources be reallocated to counter China’s growing influence. This strategy takes root from Colby’s works, notably his 2021 book, “Strategy of Denial,” and the 2018 National Defense Strategy he helped develop during Trump’s previous term. At its core, the strategy of denial seeks to deter adversaries by ensuring they cannot achieve their objectives, particularly in the Indo-Pacific region, through maintaining a favorable military balance in that area.
Practical Implementation of the Strategy
A report by Dahmer from the Marathon Initiative think tank outlines actionable steps for the Pentagon to adopt this strategy of denial. It suggests budget adjustments and strategic planning within “reasonably conceivable spending levels.” This plan highlights the Army as a significant “bill payer” under the new strategy because its large-scale land maneuver forces are seen as less essential in the maritime-focused Indo-Pacific theater. Essentially, the Army, which has been scaled to counter threats like a Russian invasion in Europe, would see a reduction in resources in favor of the Navy and Air Force, more critical in countering China.
Budget and Workforce Reallocations
The report also advocates reducing the civilian and contractor workforce within the Defense Department. Specifically, it suggests a $70 billion reduction in the Army’s budget alongside $40 billion cuts for both the Navy and the Air Force. These budgetary shifts are integral to re-aligning U.S. military focus towards the Indo-Pacific and effectively countering China’s burgeoning power. This approach necessitates “hard force planning and budgetary choices” due to the prioritization required by the rising Chinese influence.
Conclusion and Future Outlook
The incoming Trump administration is planning major shifts in the Defense Department’s strategy, with a focus on transitioning its emphasis from Europe to the Indo-Pacific region. This move is aimed at addressing the increasing threats posed by China. Key figures influencing this revamped defense strategy include Austin Dahmer, who has been appointed as the deputy assistant secretary of defense for strategy, and Alexander Velez-Green, serving as a senior advisor to the under secretary of defense for policy. Both of these individuals have strong connections to Elbridge Colby, whose pending confirmation as the head of the Pentagon’s policy shop is a crucial element of this strategic overhaul. This anticipated confirmation will likely solidify the administration’s commitment to countering Chinese influence and enhance the United States’ military and strategic presence in the Indo-Pacific region. The pivot reflects a broader recognition within the administration of the evolving global geopolitical landscape and the necessity to address new challenges.
