Navigating Syria’s Post-Assad Era: Challenges and Opportunities

December 18, 2024

In the days following Bashar al-Assad’s departure from Syria on December 8, a multitude of questions emerged about the future of a nation that had been deeply shattered and poverty-stricken after more than 13 years of civil war. Up until Assad fled, many foreign governments were primarily concerned about the possible rise of extremist militants, pervasive sectarian violence, and regional turmoil that might ensue. The jubilant scenes in Damascus streets were just the beginning of a complex and uncertain journey towards stable governance.

A critical issue that has emerged is the uncertain and intricate task of establishing a stable government in Syria’s diverse and war-torn society. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), the primary opposition group, has assumed control, implementing its Syrian Salvation Government and positioning security forces to oversee an orderly transition. Despite HTS attempting to present itself as a moderate and disciplined entity, its extremist roots and lack of dedication to political pluralism cast significant doubts over its aptitude to govern Syria inclusively and peacefully.

Among many discussions and viewpoints, there is a prevailing consensus on several notable insights about Syria’s immediate future. Firstly, the international community has a substantial interest in preventing Syria from descending into further chaos and violence. Secondly, HTS’s performance in Idlib, although somewhat stable, does not bode well for its capability to govern the entirety of Syria in a peaceful and inclusive manner. Lastly, the probability of Syria succumbing to intergroup conflict and cycles of vengeance is considerable, as the country remains fragmented and filled with various independent armed factions.

Socioeconomic conditions in Syria are dire, with broken state services, rampant poverty, and high food insecurity posing significant challenges for any new government aiming to stabilize and rebuild. The limited resources available to HTS and ongoing international sanctions exacerbate these difficulties. Even if HTS manages to maintain some level of order, the humanitarian and economic crises require urgent and multifaceted solutions.

To mitigate further disaster, several measures are suggested for the international community to consider. Firstly, HTS and other factions must be encouraged to engage in a peaceful and inclusive political transition. Furthermore, humanitarian and economic aid should be provided to support vulnerable populations and essential services within the nation. Relief from specific sanctions on state institutions and key economic sectors could also facilitate the necessary support for stabilization efforts. Lastly, it is crucial to discourage any emerging factional conflicts and avoid promoting individual national interests by backing particular groups.

A comprehensive and determined effort by both Syrians and the international community is essential to prevent the post-Assad era from spiraling into additional devastation. Focused humanitarian aid, robust economic support, and a commitment to inclusive political processes are vital for helping Syria navigate its intricate transition and prevent the reinforcement of Assad’s brutal legacy.

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