The anticipated formation of a new Sudanese government is expected to follow the significant military advancements made by the Sudanese army in Khartoum against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF). Recently, the Sudanese army, which had been struggling to hold ground in the conflict, turned the tide by recapturing substantial territories in Khartoum and advancing towards the presidential palace. Under the leadership of army head Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, the military has showcased enhanced air capabilities and increased ground forces, forcing the RSF into a retreat position. Al-Burhan has revealed plans to establish a technocratic wartime government, one that prioritizes military objectives against the RSF, labeling them as rebels. This temporary government will solely focus on liberating Sudan from RSF control.
The Struggle for Darfur
The RSF currently controls the western part of Sudan and has been aggressively fortifying its hold in the Darfur region. Despite the army’s advances, the RSF remains a formidable opponent, and the conflict has created a grave humanitarian crisis. Since the conflict ignited in April 2023, following disagreements about integrating the two forces after the uprising against Omar al-Bashir, over 12 million people have been displaced, and half the population faces severe hunger. The RSF has shown a relentless pursuit in Darfur, complicating any government-endorsed ceasefire efforts. For a ceasefire to be effective, the RSF would need to halt its campaign in the region, a demand that may be met with resistance given their current strategy.
Changes to Sudan’s Interim Constitution
In a bid to consolidate power, Sudan plans to amend its interim constitution, removing references to civilian partnership and the RSF, thereby centralizing control with the military. Once these changes occur, a new prime minister, appointed by the military, will form a Cabinet. Al-Burhan has urged members of the civilian Taqadum coalition to abandon their support for the RSF if they wish to be politically reintegrated. This strategy aims to isolate the RSF and weaken their influence while aligning with compliant civilian factions. The primary goal is to stabilize Sudan by achieving military objectives and sidelining the RSF and its former civilian allies.
The anticipated creation of this new government could drastically reshape Sudan’s political scene. However, its success hinges on effectively dealing with the RSF’s stronghold in Darfur and addressing the severe humanitarian crisis affecting the country. Al-Burhan’s vision focuses on restoring stability through a military-led interim government, but the RSF’s response and the broader reaction of the Sudanese people remain uncertain as these changes unfold.
