The 2016 Donald Trump win shocked pollsters and the political world alike.
But if Trump doesn’t begin to close the polling gap with Democratic nominee Joe Biden, then the president would need an even bigger polling upset on election day to pull out a 2020 victory.
Four years ago Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton went into election night polling ahead of Trump in Pennsylvania (+1.9 percentage points), Michigan (+3.4 points), and Wisconsin (+6.5 points). Trump won all three and took White House—although he did lose Nevada, where he had a 0.8 percentage point polling average lead, according to RealClearPolitics.
